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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.